Risk assessment framework for exposure of cargo and ports to natural hazards and climate extremes

There is an increase in risks and catastrophic losses in maritime transport including ports and cargo. Significant losses have been associated with large scale natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunami, cyclones, and other extreme weather events. This paper identifies the main gaps in understanding maritime risks in transportation research. The gaps are attributed to insufficient empirical work available from the maritime transport and logistics research community to guide multi-risk and natural hazards impact assessment on seaport and cargo. In addition, disaster studies communities have barely made adequate efforts to understand and assess port and cargo risks arising from multi-hazards and disaster events. This paper examines existing conceptual frameworks concerning exposure and risk assessments of natural catastrophe’s impacts. Furthermore, the paper identifies trends and gaps in risk assessment frameworks in the field of disaster studies that can be beneficial for maritime risk research. The authors propose a new risk assessment framework that can guide future research and multi-hazard risk assessment processes at different scales of maritime risks.     

Comparing different contour methods with response-based methods for extreme ship response analysis

Environmental contours are often applied in probabilistic structural reliability analysis to identify extreme environmental conditions that may give rise to extreme loads and responses. They facilitate approximate long term analysis of critical structural responses in situations where computationally heavy and time-consuming response calculations makes full long-term analysis infeasible. The environmental contour method identifies extreme environmental conditions that are expected to give rise to extreme structural response of marine structures. The extreme responses can then be estimated by performing response calculations for environmental conditions along the contours.Response-based analysis is an alternative, where extreme value analysis is performed on the actual response rather than on the environmental conditions. For complex structures, this is often not practical due to computationally heavy response calculations. However, by establishing statistical emulators of the response, using machine learning techniques, one may obtain long time-series of the structural response and use this to estimate extreme responses.In this paper, various contour methods will be compared to response-based estimation of extreme vertical bending moment for a tanker. A response emulator based on Gaussian processes regression with adaptive sampling has been established based on response calculations from a hydrodynamic model. Long time-series of sea-state parameters such as significant wave height and wave period are used to construct N-year environmental contours and the extreme N-year response is estimated from numerical calculations for identified sea states. At the same time, the response emulator is applied on the time series to provide long time-series of structural response, in this case vertical bending moment of a tanker. Extreme value analysis is then performed directly on the responses to estimate the N-year extreme response. The results from either method will then be compared, and it is possible to evaluate the accuracy of the environmental contour method in estimating the response. Moreover, different contour methods will be compared.     

面向复杂环境的LNG码头合理布局规模仿真案例分析

LNG船舶通过限制性航道进出港时须采取一定的管控措施,具有显著的排他性,布局LNG码头时须确定合理的码头规模,以保障港区各类船舶通航效率。基于多智能体复杂系统的混合模拟仿真建模方法,以宁波舟山港六横港区南侧岸线新布局LNG码头研究为例,建立不同的仿真情境,通过设定的指标进行评价分析,研判在一定通航管控措施条件下六横港区南侧LNG码头合理布局规模,为港口码头布局和岸线合理利用提供决策依据。     

相继增压系统对改善船用直列八缸发动机性能的试验研究

随着大型柴油发动机经济性和排放要求的不断提升,以及对发动机稳态、瞬态特性要求的不断提高,传统的涡轮增压系统已无法满足船用发动机全工况性能的要求。为了提高产品竞争力和适配性,针对某8缸直列船用柴油发动机开发了带有定压排气管的相继增压系统,并进行了发动机台架试验研究。结果表明：发动机中、低转速时,相继增压系统使发动机比油耗可以下降5%-10%,排气温度降低30%-45%,烟度下降55%-60%；最大扭矩可以提升15.1%-36.4%；发动机最大扭矩转速工况突加突卸响应性提升约28%-29%；相继增压系统中定压排气管的设计使得发动机高工况性能也有所提升,从而实现发动机全工况性能的提升。     

Using GPS-data to determine optimum electric vehicle ranges: A Michigan case study

Fuel-switching personal transportation from gasoline to electricity offers many advantages, including lower noise, zero local air pollution, and petroleum-independence. But alleviations of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are more nuanced, due to many factors, including the car’s battery range. We use GPS-based trip data to determine use type-specific, GHG-optimized ranges. The dataset comprises 412 cars and 384,869 individual trips in Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA. We use previously developed algorithms to determine driver types, such as using the car to commute or not. Calibrating an existing life cycle GHG model to a forecast, low-carbon grid for Ann Arbor, we find that the optimum range varies not only with the drive train architecture (plugin-hybrid versus battery-only) and charging technology (fast versus slow) but also with the driver type. Across the 108 scenarios we investigated, the range that yields lowest GHG varies from 65 km (55+ year old drivers, ultrafast charging, plugin-hybrid) to 158 km (16–34 year old drivers, overnight charging, battery-only). The optimum GHG reduction that electric cars offer – here conservatively measured versus gasoline-only hybrid cars – is fairly stable, between 29% (16–34 year old drivers, overnight charging, battery-only) and 46% (commuters, ultrafast charging, plugin-hybrid). The electrification of total distances is between 66% and 86%. However, if cars do not have the optimum range, these metrics drop substantially. We conclude that matching the range to drivers’ typical trip distances, charging technology, and drivetrain is a crucial pre-requisite for electric vehicles to achieve their highest potential to reduce GHG emissions in personal transportation.     

基于柔性管线的Flex-Lay铺管船的发展

Flex-Lay铺管船是柔性管线铺设平台，通过分析全球Flex-Lay铺管船发展现状，Flex-Lay铺管船正向专业化和多功能化方向发展，为我国Flex-Lay铺管船发展提供借鉴。     

船舶中速主机低频排气噪声控制研究

结合在船舶建造中遇到的低频主机排气噪声控制问题,从实船噪声源的确定、主机排气噪声谱分析和消声器声学性能验证等方面进行探索,并从排气噪声控制角度对船舶柴油机排气系统设计提出了建议。     

船用伙食冷库自控系统的改造设计

文章针对早期船用伙食冷库以继电器为主导的控制系统所存在的问题,以某一滚装客船冷库为例,根据该冷库的运行技术特点,开发出以西门子s7系列可编程控制器为核心的自动控制系统,满足了冷库运行过程的精确掌控、节约耗能和可靠性等要求。     

管道内防腐层补口技术研究进展

管道内衬或内防腐涂层现场施焊时,焊缝两侧的防腐层会由于高温作用而破坏,使环焊缝处不能得到有效的保护,内补口技术也成为影响管道质量的主要瓶颈。文中介绍了国内外主要的内补口技术,如内补口机法、内衬保护套（管）焊接法、不锈钢接头法、机械连接法等,并指出各方法的特点。文中还就内补口技术的质量控制和研究方向等提出了建议。     

Compliance with MARPOL Annex VI regulation 14 by ships in the Gulf of Guinea sub-region: Issues,challenges and opportunities

The negative environmental and health impacts association with high sulphur dioxide emissions from shipboard machineries have been raised by various stakeholders within the marine transportation sector. It is against this backdrop that the International Maritime Organisation under the MARPOL Annex VI regulation 14 has capped sulphur emission to 0.1% for Sulphur Emission Control Areas and 0.5% for the other shipping nations. However, ship owners in the Gulf of Guinea (GoG) sub-region are facing multitudes of challenges in meeting up with this new IMO regulation. This paper aims to identify the main barriers hampering effective compliance to this new regulation by ships operating in the GoG, rank the barriers, and then discuss the possible opportunities that may arise as a result of addressing the challenges. To identify the main barriers, experts with several years of experience in the maritime industry from Ghana and Cameroun were used while multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method combining analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) was employed to rank the barriers. Other methods such as fuzzy AHP (FAHP), rank-order centroid (ROC) and TOPSIS were combined to validate the result of the study. The findings indicate that lack of infrastructure, lack of comprehensive marine air pollution laws and high capital and operational costs of sulphur reduction solutions emerged as the top three ranked barriers. The findings of this study can be useful to ship owners and policy makers in dealing with the issues of marine air pollution.